Revell 04736 Space Shuttle Discovery & Booster Rockets 1:144 Scale Unbuilt/Unpainted Plastic Model Kit, Multi-color, 59.5 x 36.4 x 6.5 centimetres

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All of this was taking place in the midst of other NASA teams proposing a wide variety of post-Apollo missions, a number of which would cost as much as Apollo or more [ citation needed]. As each of these projects fought for funding, the NASA budget was at the same time being severely constrained. Three were eventually presented to Vice President Agnew in 1969. The shuttle project rose to the top, largely due to tireless campaigning by its supporters [ citation needed]. By 1970 the shuttle had been selected as the one major project for the short-term post-Apollo time frame. A failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) was the heart of NASA’s effort to ensure reliability, the NRC report noted. An FMEA, carried out by the contractor building each shuttle element or subsystem, was performed on all flight hardware and on ground support equipment that interfaced with flight hard ware. Its chief purpose was to i dentify hardware critical to the performance and safety of the mission.

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Statistics don’t count for anything,” declared Will Willoughby, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s former head of reliability and safety during the Apollo moon landing program. “They have no place in engineering anywhere.” Now director of reliability management and quality assurance for the U.S. Navy, Washington, D.C., he still holds that risk is minimized not by statistical test programs, but by “attention taken in design, where it belongs.” His design-­oriented view prevailed in NASA in the 1970s, when the space shuttle was designed and built by many of the engineers who had worked on the Apollo program.Day, Dwayne A. (November 20, 2006). "The spooks and the turkey". The Space Review. Archived from the original on March 15, 2019. The NRC committee had several criticisms. In practice, the FMEA was the sole basis for some engineering change decisions and all engineering waivers and rationales for re taining certain high-risk design features. However, the NRC report noted, hazard analyses for some important, high-risk subsystems “were not updated for years at a time even though design changes had occurred or dangerous failures were experienced.” On one procedural flow chart, the report noted, “the ‘Hazard Analysis As Required ’ is a dead-end box with inputs but no output with respect to waiver approval decisions.” Grey estimated that spares of the crucial modules might add another 10 percent to the space station’s cost. “But NASA is not willing to go to bat for that extra because they ’re unwilling to take the political risk,” he said— a replay, he fears, of NASA’s response to the political negativism over the shuttle in the 1970s.

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One reason NASA has so strongly resisted probabilistic risk analysis may be the fact that “PRA runs against all traditions of engineering, where you handle reliability by safety factors,” said Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, associate professor in the department of industrial engineering and engineering management at Stanford University in California, who is now studying organizational factors and risk assessment in NASA. In addition, with NASA’s strong pride in design, PRA may be “perceived as an insult to their capabilities, that the system they ’ve designed is not 100 percent perfect and absolutely safe,” she added. Thus, the character of an organization influences the reliability and failure of the systems it builds because its structure, policy, and culture determine the priorities, incentives, and communication paths for the engineers and managers doing the work, she said. As another incentive for the military to use the shuttle, Congress reportedly told DoD that it would not pay for any satellites not designed to fit into the shuttle cargo bay. [6] Although NRO did not redesign existing satellites for the shuttle, the vehicle retained the ability to retrieve large cargos such as the KH-9 HEXAGON from orbit for refurbishment, and the agency studied resupplying the satellite in space. [7] The probabilities originated in a series of quantitative risk assessments NASA was required to conduct by the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP), in anticipation of the launch of the Galileo spacecraft on its voyage to Jupiter, originally scheduled for the early 1980s. Galileo was powered by a plutonium-­fueled radioisotope thermoelectric generator, and Presidential Directive/NSC-25 ruled that either the U.S. President or the director of the office of science and technology policy must examine the safety of any launch of nuclear material before approving it. The INSRP (which consisted of representatives of NASA as the launching agency, the Department of Energy, which manages nuclear devices, and the Department of Defense, whose Air Force manages range safety at launch) was charged with ascertaining the quantitative risks of a catastrophic launch dispersing the radioactive poison into the atmosphere. There were a number of studies because the upper stage for boosting Galileo into interplanetary space was reconfigured several times.During the early shuttle studies, there was a debate over the optimal shuttle design that best-balanced capability, development cost, and operational cost. Initially, a fully reusable design was preferred. This involved a very large winged crewed booster which would carry a smaller winged crewed orbiter. The booster vehicle would lift the orbiter to a certain altitude and speed, then separate. The booster would return and land horizontally, while the orbiter continued into low Earth orbit. After completing its mission, the winged orbiter would re-enter and land horizontally on a runway. The idea was that full reusability would promote lower operating costs. I made a 1:78 scale model of the NASA Space Shuttle completely out of recycled materials using tools that are common and can be found in an average house. I mainly used cardboard and Elmer's glue. NASA’s “management methodology” for collection of data and determination of risk was laid out in NASA’s 1985 safety analysis for Galileo. The Johnson space center authors explained: “Early in the program it was decided not to use reliability (or probability) numbers in the design of the Shuttle” because the magnitude of testing required to statistically verify the numerical predictions “is not considered practical.” Furthermore, they noted, “experience has shown that with the safety, reliability, and quality assurance requirements imposed on manned space­flight contractors, standard failure rate data are pessimistic.”

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Being a busy student, I made this at home at night times and weekends after completing homework. This project taught me many skills that I was able to incorporate into my other activities from school such as Science Olympiad and Robotics. In addition, I was able to demo the model at an exhibit to generate publicity about the importance of recycling. Statistically an airliner is the least risky form of transportation, which implies high reliability. And in the early 1970s, when President Richard M. Nixon, Congress, and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) were all skeptical of the shuttle, proving high reliability was crucial to the program’s continued funding. When funding for the program came into question, there were concerns that the project might be canceled. This led to an effort to interest the US Air Force in using the shuttle for their missions as well. The Air Force was mildly interested but demanded a much larger vehicle, far larger than the original concepts, which NASA accepted since it was also beneficial to their own plans. To lower the development costs of the resulting designs, boosters were added, a throw-away fuel tank was adopted, and many other changes were made that greatly lowered the reusability and greatly added to the vehicle and operational costs. With the Air Force's assistance, the system emerged in its operational form. The Johnson authors’ value of 1 in 100 000 implied, as Feynman spelled out, that “one could put a Shuttle up each day for 300 years expecting to lose only one.” Yet even after the Challenger accident, NASA’s chief engineer Milton Silveira, in a hearing on the Galileo thermonuclear generator held March 4, 1986, before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science and Technology, said: “We think that using a number like 10 to the minus 3, as suggested, is probably a little pessimistic.” In his view, the actual risk “would be 10 to the minus 5, and that is our design objective.” When asked how the number was deduced, Silveira replied, “We came to those probabilities based on engineering judgment in review of the design rather than taking a statistical data base, because we didn’t feel we had that.”Before the Apollo 11 Moon landing in 1969, NASA began studies of Space Shuttle designs as early as October 1968. The early studies were denoted "Phase A", and in June 1970, "Phase B", which were more detailed and specific. The primary intended use of the Space Shuttle was supporting the future space station, ferrying a minimum crew of four and about 20,000 pounds (9,100kg) of cargo, and being able to be rapidly turned around for future flights. The Space Shuttle program used the HAL/S programming language. [10] The first microprocessor used was the 8088 and later the 80386. The Space Shuttle orbiter avionics computer was the IBM AP-101. I added the wheels for a purely demonstrational purpose, not intending for them to be able to support the weight of the model. Risk assessments conducted during design and operation: preliminary hazards analysis; failure modes and effects analysis with critical items list; various safety assessments, all qualitative at the system level, but with quantitative analyses conducted for specific subsystems.

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My 1:78 scale model of the NASA Space Shuttle made completely out of recycled materials that can be found in a typical household (although my family is far from that...). As an example of how the “mindset” in the agency is now changing in favor of “a willingness to explore other things,” Buchbinder cited the new risk management program, the workshops it has been holding to train engineers and others in quantitative risk assessment techniques, and a new management instruction policy that requires NASA to “provide disciplined and documented management of risks throughout program life cycles.” Amid such political unpopularity, which threatened the program’s very existence, “some NASA people began to confuse desire with reality,” said Adelbert Tischler, retired NASA director of launch vehicles and propulsion. “One result was to assess risk in terms of what was thought acceptable without regard for verifying the assessment.” He added: “Note that under such circumstances real risk management is shut out.” Part of the problem is getting the engineers to understand that they are using subjective methods for determining risk, because they don’t like to admit that,” said Ray A. Williamson, senior associate at the U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment in Washington, D.C. “Yet they talk in terms of sounding objective and fool themselves into thinking they are being objective.”In lieu of using probability numbers, the NSTS [National Space Transportation System] relies on engineering judgment using rigid and well-documented design, configuration, safety, reliability, and quality assurance controls,” the Johnson authors continued. This outlook determined the data NASA managers required engineers to collect. For example, no “lapsed-time indicators” were kept on shuttle components, subsystems, and systems, although “a fairly accurate estimate of time and/or cycles could be derived,” the Johnson authors added.